Ship or Die at Accelerate 2025: The Quest for a Digital Dollar

Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo, known as "Crypto Dad," predicts that within 5-10 years, most global dollar transactions will occur on tokenized digital networks, and all significant securities offerings will be tokenized on-chain. This bold forecast signals a major shift in how we conceptualize and use money in the digital age.

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In a compelling discussion at Accelerate 2025, Chris Giancarlo, founder of the Digital Dollar Project, shared insights on the future of digital currencies and their impact on global finance. Giancarlo emphasized the importance of preserving the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency while adapting to the emerging landscape of digital networks of value.

The Digital Dollar Project, a non-profit think tank, focuses on three key questions: how to future-proof the dollar for the digital world, how to maintain its reserve currency status, and how to preserve the values embodied by the dollar in a digital context. These values include free enterprise, economic autonomy, and the balance between law enforcement and economic liberty.

Giancarlo highlighted the distinction between Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins, predicting that the future will likely include both. He stressed the importance of privacy in digital currencies, arguing that a government-issued CBDC could potentially offer stronger constitutional privacy protections than commercially issued stablecoins.

The discussion also touched on the role of private sector innovation in developing digital currency solutions, with Giancarlo advocating for a balanced approach that allows for innovation while addressing public policy concerns. He predicted that within 5-10 years, most global dollar transactions will occur on tokenized digital networks, and all significant securities offerings will be tokenized on-chain.

Key Points:

The Digital Dollar Project

The Digital Dollar Project is a non-profit, non-partisan think tank founded by Chris Giancarlo after his tenure as CFTC Chairman. Its mission is to explore how the US dollar can be adapted for the digital age while preserving its status as the world's reserve currency and embodying American values.

The project focuses on three main questions: how to future-proof the dollar for digital networks of value, how to maintain its reserve currency status, and how to preserve the values it represents. These values include free enterprise, economic autonomy, and the balance between law enforcement and economic liberty.

The Importance of the US Dollar

Giancarlo argues that the US dollar's reserve currency status has been a net positive for both the United States and the world. He credits the dollar for enabling the last generation of globalization, global trade, and economic growth. The dollar has financed much of the innovation in the past 30-40 years, including the internet revolution.

Moreover, the dollar represents a set of values that promote freedom and economic growth. Entrepreneurs using dollars don't need government permission to innovate, and the currency doesn't come with restrictions on the type of innovation it can fund. As we move into a new century where value will increasingly move on digital networks, preserving these values becomes crucial.

CBDCs vs Stablecoins

The discussion clarified the distinction between Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins. While both are forms of digital currency, they differ in their issuers and the guarantees behind them. Stablecoins are typically issued by private companies, while CBDCs are issued by central banks.

Giancarlo predicts that the future will likely include both CBDCs and stablecoins, along with tokenized deposits operated by banking institutions. He argues that the existence of a sovereign digital currency (like a CBDC) might actually be necessary for people to feel comfortable putting their money into stablecoins, similar to how the existence of physical cash gives people confidence in bank deposits.

Privacy and Design Choices

One of the critical design choices for digital currencies is privacy. Giancarlo points out that commercially issued stablecoins have no inherent privacy guarantees, and the government could potentially restrict their use. In contrast, a government-issued CBDC would be subject to Fourth Amendment privacy protections under the US Constitution.

However, Giancarlo emphasizes that privacy in the American system is not absolute. There's always a balance between privacy and law enforcement, similar to the concept of privacy in one's home unless there's probable cause of a law violation. He suggests that government agencies should become nodes on blockchains, able to monitor transactions and intervene if there's evidence of illegal activity.

The Role of Private Sector Innovation

Giancarlo advocates for allowing the private sector to lead innovation in digital currencies, similar to how the early internet developed. He believes the US is proceeding correctly by not rushing to deploy a CBDC, instead letting private companies drive innovation.

However, he stresses that there's still a role for the public sector in setting core concepts and addressing public policy concerns. The government should ensure that private sector entities recognize the dollar's importance and the values it represents.

The Future of Digital Currencies and Securities

In a bold prediction, Giancarlo states that within five years, most dollars moving around the world will be on tokenized digital networks. Furthermore, he forecasts that within 10 years, virtually all significant securities offerings (debt or equity) will be tokenized on-chain.

He compares this transition to the shift from physical photo albums to digital photos on smartphones. Non-tokenized, non-digitized securities will become as obsolete as bearer bonds with physical coupons.

Facts + Figures

• The Digital Dollar Project is a self-funded, non-profit, non-partisan think tank focused on the future of the US dollar in the digital age.
• Currently, there is approximately $280 billion in stablecoin value, with about 99% based on the US dollar.
• Three of the 20 largest American banks have failed in the last three years.
• 90% of money is currently held in bank deposits, while 10% remains in physical cash.
• The cost of moving money around the globe through traditional banking systems is estimated to be between 2-3% of the world's GDP.
• In 2000, less than 350 million people were using e-commerce.
• By 2010, 2 billion people were using e-commerce.
• Today, over 6 billion people use e-commerce.
• Giancarlo predicts that within 5-10 years, most global dollar transactions will occur on tokenized digital networks.
• He also forecasts that within 10 years, all significant securities offerings will be tokenized on-chain.

Top quotes

1. "The dollar has been a tool of freedom. The dollar's been a tool of economic growth. The dollar's been a tool of global trade."
2. "I believe the dollar and its reserve currency status has been a net good not just for the United States, but for the world."
3. "We cannot control whether there will be a dollar-based central bank digital currency or not, because countries whose currency is based on the dollar, like Bermuda, may choose to launch a CBDC."
4. "There is absolutely no inherent privacy in a commercially issued stablecoin."
5. "A dollar-based central bank digital currency will have more inherent privacy under our Constitution than will be a commercially issued digital form of currency."
6. "The United States owns the dollar. We want to take the same approach to licensing the dollar that McDonald's takes to their brand or Nike takes to their brand."
7. "Within five years, virtually most of the money moving around the world, most of the dollars moving around the world will be moving on tokenized digital networks."
8. "Within 10 years, I predict to you, that there won't be a securities offering, a debt offering, an equity's offering of any significance that's not tokenized on chain."

Questions Answered

What is the Digital Dollar Project?

The Digital Dollar Project is a non-profit, non-partisan think tank founded by Chris Giancarlo after his tenure as CFTC Chairman. It focuses on exploring how to future-proof the US dollar for the digital age, maintain its reserve currency status, and preserve the values it embodies. The project conducts research, publishes papers, and organizes conferences to address these critical questions about the future of the dollar in a world of digital networks of value.

What's the difference between CBDCs and stablecoins?

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins are both forms of digital currency, but they differ in their issuers and the guarantees behind them. CBDCs are issued directly by central banks and represent a liability of the government, similar to physical cash. Stablecoins, on the other hand, are typically issued by private companies and are backed by various assets, often including traditional fiat currencies like the US dollar. The key distinction lies in who issues and controls the currency, with CBDCs being government-issued and stablecoins being privately issued.

Why is privacy important in digital currencies?

Privacy is crucial in digital currencies because it relates to fundamental rights and the balance between individual freedom and law enforcement. Chris Giancarlo argues that privacy in financial transactions is an essential American value that should be preserved in digital currencies. However, he notes that privacy is not absolute and must be balanced with the needs of law enforcement. In the context of digital currencies, privacy considerations affect how transactions are monitored, what information is available to issuers or governments, and how this data can be used or accessed.

How might CBDCs affect the banking system?

CBDCs could have significant impacts on the banking system. Giancarlo suggests that the existence of a sovereign digital currency (like a CBDC) might actually be necessary for people to feel comfortable putting their money into stablecoins, similar to how the existence of physical cash gives people confidence in bank deposits. However, CBDCs could also potentially disrupt traditional banking by providing a direct way for people to hold central bank money, potentially reducing the role of commercial banks as intermediaries.

When does Giancarlo predict widespread adoption of digital currencies?

Giancarlo makes a bold prediction that within 5-10 years, most global dollar transactions will occur on tokenized digital networks. He also forecasts that within 10 years, all significant securities offerings (both debt and equity) will be tokenized on-chain. This suggests a rapid and widespread adoption of digital currencies and blockchain technology in global finance over the next decade.

How does the US approach to regulating digital currencies differ from other countries?

According to Giancarlo, the United States tends to regulate "last, not first" compared to regions like the European Union. This approach allows for more innovation in the private sector before regulations are implemented. While this can sometimes result in the US being slower to set global standards, it allows innovators to solve real-world problems rather than just regulatory needs. Giancarlo views this as a strength, as it enables regulators to identify genuine public policy issues that need addressing, rather than preemptively setting rules that may stifle innovation.

What role does Giancarlo see for private sector innovation in digital currencies?

Giancarlo strongly advocates for allowing the private sector to lead innovation in digital currencies. He believes that innovation should come from private companies, similar to how the early internet developed. However, he also emphasizes that there's a role for the public sector in setting core concepts and addressing public policy concerns. The government should ensure that private sector entities recognize the importance of the dollar and the values it represents while allowing them the freedom to innovate and develop new solutions.

How might digital dollars impact global trade and finance?

Digital dollars, whether in the form of CBDCs or stablecoins, have the potential to significantly reduce the cost and increase the speed of global financial transactions. Giancarlo points out that the current cost of moving money around the globe through traditional banking systems is estimated to be between 2-3% of the world's GDP. Digital currencies could dramatically reduce this cost, making global trade more efficient. Additionally, the widespread adoption of digital dollars could further cement the US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, influencing global financial dynamics.